The Lincoln Plawg - the blog with footnotes
Monday, July 11, 2005
Hispanic electorate poll - one or two puzzles
The survey (PDF) of likely Hispanic voters, taken in the first fortnight of June, comes from James Carville's Democracy Corps. It's well worth a squint.
For instance (Q10), given a list of alternatives, respondents were asked to characterise their ethnicity; the largest group by far (53%) said Mexican. The next largest (14%) said Spanish.
The US Census short report on the Hispanic population in 2002 has a chart (p1) showing 67% of the population as of Mexican origin . And it doesn't have a classification of Spanish .
Clearly, not many of the 14% come from peninsular Spain. And it's odd given the polemic around the use of the word Hispanic - which is supposed to sound too much like Spain by the grievance grinders who push the point.
The language issue is also interesting: by 79-21, respondents were happier speaking in English (Q2). Only 9% spoke only Spanish at home, against 26% who spoke only English (Q11). Though only 5% watched only Spanish TV against 37% who watched only English (Q12).
The question begged is, What sort of Spanish? On February 6, I mentioned a thesis that looked at the experience of Mexican-Americans who attended a Spanish heritage course at a Mexican university. The greatest difficulty they faced was an inability to communicate in Spanish.
On the politics, Bush's fav/unfav (Q14) is 42-54; Democracy Corps main polling report has a fav/unfav of 48-50 (Q9).
Sounds pretty good, all told, given that, according to the (rather controversial!) exit poll, Bush scored 44-56 among Hispanics - the survey respondents said they voted 37-58 (Q78).
Even better news for the Dems, though; on the warm/cold feelings question (Q15), the parties rated D:60.1-R:47.8. The Bush-Kerry margin is less impressive - 49.0-52.8 - but these numbers don't come with confidence intervals .
And the Congressional intentions are even more striking: 57-26, they said they would vote for the D if the election were today. As were party identifications (Q117) - a similar split.
On social issues, they are suprisingly liberal on abortion (Q83) with a majority supporting it in all (13%) or most (38%) cases; and 40% say homosexuality should be accepted by society (Q75).
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