The Lincoln Plawg - the blog with footnotes

Politics and law from a British perspective (hence Politics LAW BloG): ''People who like this sort of thing...'' as the Great Man said

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Friday, October 08, 2004

Polling: how does Bush do it?

Keep so many races so tight after the Florida cringefest, and the loss of mo since, I mean. (Continuing the pattern I discussed on October 6.)

Running down the list of state polls identified with an October date [1], the slip-sliding has been limited. None of the five October-dated polls for Florida gives Kerry a lead; Bush is behind one point in Iowa, same as on April 15; Kerry's Maine margin is only a couple of points (varying spreads in the different polls, but getting narrower over time); Rasmussen gave a tie in Michigan on September 30 and a tie on October 4.

Elsewhere, the pattern is the same for many once so-called battleground states - Bush seems to be keeping it close. And some leads, well within the margin of error - which will be generous, I suspect.

I can offer no analysis - but we seem still to have a contest.

  1. Fieldwork may have been before the debate, of course.

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