The Lincoln Plawg - the blog with footnotes

Politics and law from a British perspective (hence Politics LAW BloG): ''People who like this sort of thing...'' as the Great Man said

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Wednesday, October 06, 2004

The Florida debate and the polls: those crazy Yanks...

By common consent, Bush turned in a performance of such sheer awfulness as to disqualify from the office of Podunk County Dogcatcher, let alone President of the United States, whereas Kerry was, at the least, not too bad. (That's on style: on future policy, they're really not that far apart on leading issues.)

According to a Rasmussen post-debate poll, though,
six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November. This includes 3% who now say they will vote for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

So the stumblebum held what should have been a slashed jugular of a bleeding away of support to a shaving cut!

(Spoilsports will wish to point out that numbers this small are killed by a margin of error of three or four points [1]. But, even so...)

The wackiness confirmed by the stat that the expectations spread on the eventual winner in now 21 points - 53% to 32% think Bush will win. And that has moved out from 14 points straight after the Republican Convention!

Survey USA polls in Ohio (PDF) and Florida whose fieldwork was carried out after the debate are now available [2], and show no sign of a slump: 49-48 and 51-46 to Bush, respectively. The comparatives available in summary form in this polling history.

Perhaps this is all mere polling artefact - the inverse of dead cat bounce: Bush's polling numbers suspended in mid-air like a cartoon character who has managed to run three yards off the cliff, and only drops like a stone when he looks down! Time, as the journalist would say, will tell.

  1. Rasmussen supplies such details as MOE only to paying customers, apparently.

  2. Survey USA Florida link doesn't work right now.

    Fieldwork for the latest Rasmussen polls in those states - Ohio and Florida - straddle the debate.

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