The Lincoln Plawg - the blog with footnotes

Politics and law from a British perspective (hence Politics LAW BloG): ''People who like this sort of thing...'' as the Great Man said

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Saturday, February 14, 2004
 

The Kerry 'intern' problem and Hillary


And Con Coughlin got up and slowly walked away.

With reports in the British press, there's a mini-recrudescence of the blogospherical Stateside sanctimony overload seen over the Hutton Report, coinciding with a feeding frenzy about the completely unsubstantiated rumours being circulated about Kerry and the 'intern' (if she was) [1].

(Captain Reynaud said it.)

I'm puzzling on Senator Hillary Clinton's strategy in all of this: I had gathered that she was working on 2008, on the basis that Bush would most likely win in 2004; a loss in 2004 would scupper her chances for good, probably, so best (on that basis) to wait till the incumbent vacates.

If, however, a Dem wins in 2004, that would leave her hoping for a peculiar kind of disaster befalling him such that he was tarnished (to allow a successful HRC run in the 2008 primaries) but not so as to affect the chances of any other Dem in the general. A first run in 2012 would be just too damned late, age-wise.

Suppose the putative bimbo restores Bush's dominance in the polls (despite various economic woes, plus Iraq sliding into - a bad place, if not outright anarchy or civil war): and the Dems panic, and Hillarymania gains a grip. What's the latest time she can make her move?

If Kerry [2] goes over the top with pledged delegates alone (counting superdelegates against him), can those delegates be unpledged? Could Kerry go to the Convention with a clear majority of pledged delegates and still find that Hillary has been drafted? Or must he be allowed to go to at least one ballot with the delegates he has committed to him?

(I'm thinking aloud: I realise it's all liable to be in the rules. I just want to postpone getting into the rules until the odds shorten on a Kerry crash-and-burn.)

  1. The name being bandied around is that of ex-AP hack Alexandra Polier, by the way.

  2. Greenpapers (now) and Kos (July 2003) disagree by four superdelegates on the total: 3,250 pledged delegates plus 801/805 superdelegates = 4,321/4,325 total delegates. Kerry currently has 324 on the hard count, 431.5 on the soft (ie, excluding superdelegates).

MORE

John Kerry on Don Imus' show, according to the Guardian yesterday:
There is nothing to report, nothing to talk about. There's nothing there. There's no story.

Sounds to me like a classic Alastair Campbell-style non-denial denial: he's not saying he didn't pork the girl (whoever that girl might be - if she exists at all); he's saying, so what?

That, needless to say, is absolutely not evidence that any part of the story is true. It may well just be a politican's reflex shiftiness.


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